Russia did not face an imminent security threat to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit, said in a bombshell video posted on social media Friday. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with the NATO bloc,” Prigozhin explained in the half-hour tirade released by his press service. “The Russian Defense Ministry is deceiving the public and the president,” he added.
Russia did not face an imminent security threat to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit
…but don’t blame me, I’m just a mercenary and they offered money.
“I’ve made enough money at this point.”
Sure does seem from recent statements like he’s seeing writing on the wall regarding the war in Ukraine and is trying to ensure he’s got his ass covered in the event Putin isn’t around to protect him.
tl;dr:
Russia did not face an imminent security threat to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit, said in a bombshell video posted on social media Friday. Prigozhin’s comments were at odds with the casus belli given by President Vladimir Putin when he ordered troops into Ukraine last February, although the private army chief avoided personally attacking the Russian leader. Putin has cited NATO expansion near Russia’s borders as one of the main justifications for invading neighboring Ukraine. Prigozhin also accused Kremlin-linked oligarchs of seeking to plunder Ukraine’s resources after its military capture and appointment of a puppet regime in Kyiv. Some analysts have interpreted Prigozhin’s latest comments as a sign of his growing political ambitions.
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This is huge. If this video reaches the Russian population it could lead to the end of the war. Prigozhin is not someone to be taken lightly.
The Russian Defense Ministry is deceiving the public and the president.
This particular wording is interesting. Prigozhin doesn’t blame Putin. He blames the Defense Ministry. This might be a way out of this war for Putin.
The reality of the situation is that Russia doesn’t work the same way as Western countries. Or most countries for that matter. The structure of power in Russia is completely different for historical reasons (you can learn more here https://youtu.be/f8ZqBLcIvw0).
The short version is that in most countries members of lower classes of the society compete with members of the higher classes for rights, privileges, etc. In Russia members of the same class compete with each other to please the higher classes for privileges, etc.
The situation in Russia right now is that there are three major military forces: regular army, Wagner group and Putin’s private army.
Regular army and Wagner are in the same class and they compete with each other. Regular army is highly corrupt, inefficient and pretty much rotten to the core after decades of mismanagement. Yet it still poses some threat to Putin. Wagner group is a small and efficient (compared to regular army) force. It won’t be able to take an open fight with a regular army due to man power, but it’s string enough to hold a punch here and there.
Prigozhin shits on regular army to win points in the eyes of Putin. Putin then uses Prigozhin’s critique to put dump the faces of generals into their shit and to control them. Regular army doesn’t like this though and is now planning counter offensive against Prigozhin. And this is something people in the West rarely hear about.
So, the latest news of this in-class fighting! Prigozhin has a contract to supply regular army with food rations and he is using these profits to execute military operations across the world in the interest of Russian Federation. Sometime ago Shoigu took over army control. He also has legislative powers. So he decided to increase daily spend per person. Sounds like free money for Prigozhin? Of course not! Once the spending was increased, a lot of oligarchs started to get into Prigozhin’s supply chain. And he didn’t like it. So he wrote an official letter to Shoigu that he won’t be complicit in corruption, that it undermines his ability to fund his operations and that Russian MoD should find another food supplier. Big thick fuck you to Shoigu!
But that was the first play. Right now Shoigu is pushing another bill to force independent military groups to become part of regular army or, at least, be controlled by the army. Now that will hurt Wagner group a lot. The question is what will Putin do about it as he’s not interested in losing Prigozhin.
I knew that Prigozhin hates Shoigu, but I didn’t have the perspective you gave.
Prigozhin doesn’t involve Putin in its rants, and it makes perfect sense with what you are saying. But could he go at war with the regular Russian army like he’s saying? He’s talking about “tens and tens of thousands” of loss on his side, and calling about overthrowing corrupt leaders? That’s crazy.
That seems to me more a way in for him in the ministry of Defense. Scapegoating current defense minister and replacing him…
I wonder what his angle is. All I can assume is that things are very bleak on the battlefield and he’s choosing his men over Putin.
