Also target fixation before hand - you fear but suspect your car will break down so you’re thinking about it frequently. Then it does as suspected. Add confirmation bias on the back end and it seems like your negative target fixation caused the event. Ain’t psychology fun? Imagine what we could accomplish without these well worn ruts in our brains? LOL

They knew they couldn’t (probably didn’t want to) damage the painting itself. The Mona Lisa has been behind bullet proof glass since the mid 90s, so it wasnt a secret. So they chose something that was relevant to their cause and they probably (rightly) guessed that soup would make a headline when paint or dye has been done so many times before that it might not.