Do we have a AI with a theory of mind or just a AI that answers the questions in the test correctly?
Now whether or not there is a difference between those two things is more of a philosophical debate. But assuming there is a difference, I would argue it’s the latter. It has likely seen many similar examples during training (the prompts are in the article you linked, it’s not unlikely to have similar texts in a web-scraped training set) and even if not, it’s not that difficult to extrapolate those answers from the many texts it must’ve read where a character was surprised at an item missing that that character didn’t see being stolen.
Have you heard of The Longing? It doesn’t tick all your boxes but it is definitely a long term game that has you make slow, real-time progress while the real time clock of 400 days is ticking down. Not really management sim progress though.
On the more managy side, I’ve had some fun with Factory Idle. Essentially mini-Factorio as an idle game.