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I don’t think source-available licenses have any chance of outcompeting open source, or at least I hope developers won’t let them.
Open source thrives on contributions. The moment you restrict what I can do with the software I’m supposed to contribute to is the moment I ask myself: “am I being asked to work for free, solely for the benefit of someone else?”.
The incentive to contribute completely disappears (at least to me) when I’m asked to do it for a project which “belongs to someone in particular”.
Joplin itself is AGPL. Unfortunately, Joplin Server is under “JOPLIN SERVER PERSONAL USE LICENSE”.
While I really like Joplin, I’m thinking of making the switch to something fully open source.