Source is KeplerL2, who is generally considered a reliable source for insider hardware info, particularly on AMD GPU hardware and AMD SoC for consoles.
Previously I would have personally estimated Steam Deck 2 to release mid 2026-early 2027, but the recent info about an upcoming Steam Machine made me think that maybe I should push back that estimate.
Of course even if we assume this is reliable insider info, a lot can change in couple years, so things can definitely change.
Your question depends on your definition of “can it run”. To me, as a portable device I get 45 fps on the witcher on medium settings and that’s very playable. If you want to use it as a desktop and expect that the next version will rival a 5000 series GPU, that’s unrealistic.
In bg3 even with lowest settings I had 20 fps, in the last arc I had 2 fps even with 240p… I tired cyberpunk recently and it ran with 30 fps diped some times, which is playable I guess but my battery lasts 30-45 min… And the same issue I have the same issue with all AAA games, I can lower the settings to make them playable at 40 fps, but my battery life is so short that it’s not even worth playing.
In the first place with this it’s best to just compare price to performance with the competitors and even now the steam deck has lost its lead, and it will only get worse if Asus releases a better performing device every year.
The same thing happened with the valve index.
I don’t think you can take a device like this and compare AAA titles on it, but even if we do then I think you can only compare it to other handhelds. Right now, checking the competitors they’re mostly on par right now for AAA performance. I stand by my other comments, if you’re looking for good graphics and good performance, a handheld is not the right device for you - you need to be looking at a desktop with an actual GPU and real power.
Those are real tradeoffs we make by going portable, we expect lower performance so we can get a longer battery life. We cannot have a long battery and great performance in a portable, they go against each other. If others are able to pull it off then yeah go with them, but every bit of performance they add means consuming more battery life.