Italian welfare systems are already struggling to cope with the ageing of the population, and there is no consensus on what to do about it.
Italy has long had one of the lowest birth rates in the EU, and the country is ageing at a much faster rate than other member states, and it appears to be getting worse.
According to government statistics, the average number of children per Italian woman has dropped from 1.24 in 2022 to 1.2 in 2023. Experts say that if the country’s population crisis continues, Italy’s population of 59 million could fall by almost 1 million by 2030.
And the effects of the crisis are already being felt, with the ageing of the population causing problems for Italy’s healthcare and pension systems.
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This is pretty much what is happening in most developed economies, unfortunately. Because real estate became a very profitable investment, and as a result we are now running out of affordable accommodation.
It is going to be interesting, when the baby boomer generation starts dying because of old age. There is only so much that buying up for investment purposes can maintain a market without people wanting to life in the houses.
The housing ages as well. Old houses will be torn down and new builds will be regulated to maintain the supply low.
Demographic will definitely also have impact, but so much money is tied in REITs that some sort of bailout is inevitable in case the prices crash.
Who will bail them out when nobody is working to pay the taxes?
I’m not saying it will work itself out, but at some point the country will start to look like south Africa. The infrastructure will break faster than it can be fixed, degrading the system further and further.
They would leave the houses empty to keep prices high.
Italy’s problems aren’t new. Am Italian.
Although this sounds reasonable, the countries with the highest birth rates in the world are Niger, Chad, Congo and Somalia. If not being able to afford a high quality of life was the cause of decreasing birth rates as you say, we would expect these countries to be doing even worse than Italy because being able to afford your basic needs is even worse there.
That’s two different causes. Countries with a high birth rate also have a relatively high infant mortality rate and lower life expectancy. The goal there is survival.
Paradoxically high GDP countries also have lower birthrates due to higher cost of living, delays due to economic priorities such as career advancement or travels, accessibile contraception, different family structures and also unfavourable social welfare policies.
More like babies are an unintended byproduct of sex and birth control fixed the unwanted consequences.
Immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa would still prefer Italy. You don’t need to focus on babies, open borders fixes the problem.