As prime minister Justin Trudeau trails in polls, opposition seek to persuade voters environmental policy is a burden
Mass hunger and malnutrition. A looming nuclear winter. An existential threat to the Canadian way of life. For months, the country’s Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has issued dire and increasingly apocalyptic warnings about the future. The culprit? A federal carbon levy meant to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
In the House of Commons this month, the Tory leader said there was only one way to avoid the devastating crisis: embattled prime minister Justin Trudeau must “call a ‘carbon tax’ election”.
Hailed as a global model of progressive environmental policy, Canada’s carbon tax has reduced emissions and put money in the pockets of Canadians. The levy, endorsed by conservative and progressive economists, has survived multiple federal elections and a supreme court challenge. But this time, a persistent cost-of-living crisis and a pugnacious Conservative leader running on a populist message have thrust the country’s carbon tax once more into the spotlight, calling into question whether it will survive another national vote.
Canada-wide, it’s at -8 in terms of favorability.
Even if you attribute that to ignorance of how it works or even flat out hatred of Trudeau, it still isn’t popular. That is the political reality. It is GENERALLY unpopular.
Considering Trudeaus favorability ratings are currently like, -30, it’s actually significantly more popular than Trudeau himself, which makes me skeptical that the driving force really is just a dislike of Trudeau
I think that’s exactly the explanation of how the driving force really is just a dislike of Trudeau. The CPC has done a good job of tainting it as “Trudeau’s Carbon Tax”. The Environment is a top issue for Canadians. This is just anecdotal, but I live in a rural, conservative area and while you get a lot of ignorance or just hatred of any type of tax, you also get some people who logically understand how it works but simply hate it because it’s tied to Trudeau.
Maybe. But if it was that simple then I’d expect it to be at least as unfavorable as Trudeau.
I think it’s just people don’t understand it, and I think that’s frankly the fault of the liberals.
People hear “tax” and go “shit that’s a thing I have to pay, right?” And “carbon” and say “my home is heated by natural gas and I drive to work” and then say “the government wants to tax me not to freeze and to get to work?” And then they don’t connect the dots that the money that keeps getting direct deposited to them by the government is funded by the tax.
Like, if it was called “The Climate Bonus Payment” and the government had a little fucking fanfare around the distribution, it’d be wildly popular.
I think you’re looking at it the wrong way. The more likely conclusion to draw here is that the carbon tax is well liked enough that it can rise above Trudeau’s appalling favorability ratings. If people hated the tax itself as widely as you’re supposing, it would logically be even less popular than the leader it’s so indemnably associated with, no?
I think we roughly agree. The point I’m trying to make is that I think arguments around it being tied to just hating Trudeau are overblown. Even when Trudeau was net positive the carbon tax was net negative.
I think people’s perception of the carbon tax are based on their understanding of the carbon tax. I don’t people’s view of Trudeau significantly factor into it, at least not directly.
Conservatives are most likely to see it unfavorably. They’re most likely to not understand it. They might ALSO be more likely to see Trudeau unfavorably… But that’s kinda post hoc ergo propter hoc IMO
I don’t think your logic follows there, if anything that would prove it’s probably more related to Trudeau than anything else. If it was opposite and the law was less favorable than Trudeau yeah I would agree with your logic but it just doesn’t work the way you’re saying.
My argument is I think I don’t think a dislike of Trudeau is driving the unpopularity of the carbon tax. My argument is that misunderstanding of the carbon tax is driving the unpopularity of the carbon tax.
And my rationale is what you’re saying: why is the CT MORE popular than Trudeau if hatred for Trudeau is why the CT is is unpopular? I agree, it DOESN’T follow.
It does. It absolutely follows. I don’t know how you’re thinking of it, like I can’t wrap my head around how you’re getting from A to B here. If people hated the bill on its own then shouldn’t it’d be less popular than Trudeau? It would have the double whammy of being unpopular on its own and being his policy.
Let’s try this, we both agree that a lot of people have a negative opinion of Trudeau? Of course. Therefore anything connected with him is going to have an inherent downward swing of opinion due to the association? Right? Pretty simple. However as we see despite being associated with him it’s still much more popular than he is. Therefore he’s bringing it down more than the reverse.
Imagine there’s a guy drowning and he’s sinking to the bottom, he reaches out and grabs a piece of wood with his outstretched hand. His hands up high above his head clinging into this piece of wood and it’s starting to sink too because he’s too heavy and it overwhelms the woods buoyancy. That’s what I’m saying. Picture this bill like the piece of wood. Does that help?
No.
No.
These relationships can exist, but it’s not the case that they must exist. We know through polling what the favorability is of the CT: low. We know through polling how well understood it is: poor. We know through polling that people who don’t understand it are much more inclined to view it unfavorably. We already have a very straightforward explanation.
Adding in Trudeau is adding a 3rd variable into the mix to explain something that’s already been explained. And when you add him it, you have to start inventing justifications to make things align with his numbers.
It is the antithesis of Occam’s razor