cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4157628
cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4157529
James Robinson, along with Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, has been awarded this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics for his research on the critical role institutions play in fostering national prosperity. In [this Q&A session]l with EL PAÍS, he explains that his work also seeks to highlight how the legacy of colonialism has impeded economic development in certain regions, particularly in Latin America and Africa.
James Robinson: […] we make a simple division, focusing on the presence of inclusive institutions or extractive institutions. Inclusive institutions create broad incentives and opportunities for all people equally, while extractive institutions concentrate benefits and incentives in the hands of a few. Many economists say that development comes from entrepreneurship and innovation, but in reality it comes from people’s dreams, creativity and aspirations. To be prosperous, you have to create a series of institutions that can cultivate this talent. However, if you look at countries like Colombia or Nigeria, talent is wasted because people do not have opportunities.
[…]
Institutions can be an obstacle to competitiveness. However, one should consider the impact that European integration had on countries such as Spain, Portugal or the former Soviet countries. These are remarkable success stories. There has been an almost unprecedented transition. It is true that there may be too much regulation or inefficient rules, but broadly speaking the effects of European institutions has been largely positive over the past 50 years.
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[Immigration] is one of the big questions we have to solve. […] it can be difficult. It is not easy to quickly incorporate the millions of people who cross the Mediterranean [trying to reach Europe]. One of the possible ways is to help them develop in order to improve the terrible situation in their own countries. However, one of the biggest complications is that the policies recommended by Western institutions are not in tune with what is happening in these [developing] countries. At the World Bank, for example, you cannot talk about politics. How do we expect them to solve real problems when you cannot talk about them? Frankly, it doesn’t make sense. If we really want to change the world, we have to have honest conversations. I see that as a long way off.
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The reality is that democratic countries have shown that they are better at managing public services and achieving rapid growth. You can find impressive examples like China among autocratic countries, but you cannot achieve an inclusive economy with an authoritarian regime and a model like the Chinese one.
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I don’t think the Chinese model can continue. If you look at other authoritarian regimes, like Iran or Russia, they are incredibly weak economically and technologically. The economy cannot flourish in an authoritarian regime. Right now, technological dynamism is concentrated in one such country and in the Western world. However, one has to consider that, with Donald Trump, the institutions that have made the United States great are being seriously questioned. This could affect the context, and that is why the European Union and NATO are so important.
[…]
[Populism is linked to the growing disconnect between governments and citizens] and an example of this is Latin America. Democracy promised too much and did not always deliver. People’s lives did not change, and they sought new alternatives. There are various factors why democracy has not achieved transformations, such as clientelism and corruption. […] Venezuela was governed in a deeply corrupt manner, and Hugo Chávez was clever in taking advantage of it. You also see this with Donald Trump, who has gone far because he realized there was widespread dissatisfaction with traditional politics. The failures of democratic institutions are real, and that is why we have to think about how to make them more empathetic to what people need.
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Artificial intelligence can be wonderful, but like all technologies, it depends on how it is used. If artificial intelligence is used to create replacements for humans, that could be devastating. […] It is all about how it is used, and that depends on our governments. I think that these decisions should not be left to the tech gurus. They only think about what makes them the most money, even if this is not related to the general well-being of society. In the case of artificial intelligence, it is very important, because it could have a tectonic impact on the world.
China’s population has seen some of the greatest improvements in human welfare in history during the past 50 years, including the near elimination of extreme poverty. Comparing this to slavery in the American South is frankly silly. It is like making light of slavery.
Oh ffs.
Note how low it was? Then note that dip there? See, life expectancy for everyone shot up in the 20th century, because everyone started getting western medicine. That dip? That was the GLF/CR, basically Mao killing for fun and declaring war against sparrows and losing, badly.
That’s like saying “The Chinese have made great strides in mobile internet use!” EVERYBODY HAS!!!
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
Average gdp per capita in the world. Note that right now it’s around $13000.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN
About $13000.
But wait, note how it shot up from $1500 starting around 2004? While world GDP was around $7000 around then?
And look how there was almost no growth for much of the CCPs history?
In the mid-2000s the CCP opened the door and let China finally learn from the west, after spending over half a century brutally butchering its own people to keep them in line.
If you want to give them credit for that, feel free, it’s a bit like taking credit for saving someone’s life when you stop holding their head under water.
Economic development isn’t so easy, or more countries would already be rich. Look at peer countries: in 1970, China had around the same GDP per capita as India and lower than Indonesia, now it’s about 50% higher than Indonesia and 170% higher than India. If you view this through the institutions lens (which is the whole point of Robinson’s work), it’s hard to avoid concluding that China’s institutions aren’t particularly extractive, compared to nominally democratic countries at the same stage of development.
Whether this will continue to be the case is an open question. The doomer case for China is pretty fashionable, but again it’s useful to do a comparison. Look at the middle income countries and ask which ones can make it out of the middle income trap, and transition into an advanced economy. China stands a much better chance than almost any other middle income country, just from the fact that it’s already at the technology frontier in many industries.
I could write a long response to this point by point, but we both know you aren’t listening, so I’ll leave you with this: