In Japan and South Korea there is deepening concern over the reliability of long-time American security guarantees – whether the U.S. will come to their aid in the event of a war. This has been turbo-charged by Donald Trump’s tough treatment of traditional U.S. allies, which has some in Tokyo and Seoul calling for a reassessment of their non-nuclear policies.
My understanding is that Japan is de facto an nuclear armed state, they simply haven’t made an warheads. They have the all the necessary technology and fuel enrichment, so they could quickly arm if they thought it would be necessary in the near future.
How’s the ICBM situation?
Probably not terribly relevant if their only requirement is to drop one on Pyongyang if necessary. Japan’s got planes. I don’t think anyone else outside of their hemisphere is saber-rattling at them at the moment.
From what I understand from sitting in the comfort of my own armchair, North Korea’s air defenses and indeed pretty much all of their traditional military is pretty rickety at this point. They rely on the nuclear threat plus the assumed support and intervention of China, along with a battery of conventional artillery pointed directly at Seoul, to dissuade any other state from just steamrolling them. North Korea’s missile game is pretty weak, too, but likewise really all they need to be able to do is hit Japan. Hell, if all they wanted to do was cause chaos in the south they’d just have to truck a bomb to the edge of the DMZ and set it off right there.