I would say that based on whatever calculus/evidence they have access to, Canada has decided that the threat of an all-out war, or least Israel carpet bombing Lebanon with munitions the US just sent them is high enough to warrant evacuation. That’s an above-average signal that something bad is about to happen, because it’s a big deal to evacuate all those people. It doesn’t mean something is definitely going to happen.
That said, bibi needs forever war for the time being because he’s facing jail if he gets punted from his position, and they’ve pummeled Gaza about as much as they can at this point while still pretending that they can end Hamas, so murdering civilians in another country is probably starting to look pretty appetizing to him. They’ll still keep slamming Gaza but he needs something big and existential for his domestic audience to keep them from taking him out.
So long story short, I’d say the probabilities of something like regional conflict happening have been raising pretty sharply lately. Hopefully the Canadian evac will prove to be alarmist, but our timeline hasn’t exactly been going the way I hope last few years so…
Is this because of Israel wanting war with Lebanon? If so this is very worrying
I would say that based on whatever calculus/evidence they have access to, Canada has decided that the threat of an all-out war, or least Israel carpet bombing Lebanon with munitions the US just sent them is high enough to warrant evacuation. That’s an above-average signal that something bad is about to happen, because it’s a big deal to evacuate all those people. It doesn’t mean something is definitely going to happen.
That said, bibi needs forever war for the time being because he’s facing jail if he gets punted from his position, and they’ve pummeled Gaza about as much as they can at this point while still pretending that they can end Hamas, so murdering civilians in another country is probably starting to look pretty appetizing to him. They’ll still keep slamming Gaza but he needs something big and existential for his domestic audience to keep them from taking him out.
So long story short, I’d say the probabilities of something like regional conflict happening have been raising pretty sharply lately. Hopefully the Canadian evac will prove to be alarmist, but our timeline hasn’t exactly been going the way I hope last few years so…
Wanting? If the attacks from south Lebanon stop, there would be no need, right?
If the Israeli war crimes would stop, then there would be no need for Lebanon to attack.